The Churko Formula's Guide to the 2014 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Last year, I published The Churko Formula, a method of picking the winners of playoff series based off of season series. To my knowledge, it’s the only method that’s guaranteed to pick a winner more than 50% of the time, or in the case of last season, 87% of the time.

Because I’m not in any hockey pool this year, I don’t mind tipping my hand early and sharing my predictions. If I’m right, it only adds to my credibility, yeah?

Boston Bruins – 1st Eastern Conference

Won Season Series: Tampa Bay, Columbus, New York, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh

Lost Season Series: Detroit, Montreal

Prediction: Possible first-round exit; otherwise good chance at Stanley Cup

This has the potential to be the upset of the year as there’s a 74% chance that they’ll face the Red Wings, who beat them 3 out of 4 times during the regular season. But in the 26% chance of event that they’ll face Columbus or Philadelphia, it should be a clean shot to the Finals for the Bruins.

Pittsburgh Penguins – 2nd Eastern Conference

Won Season Series: Tampa Bay, Columbus

Lost Season Series: Boston, Philadelphia

Tied Season Series: Detroit, Montreal, New York

Prediction: Stanley Cup Favourites

Pittsburgh should be safe, especially since they have a 63% chance of facing Columbus who they beat 5 out of 5 times (all in regulation). There is, however, an 11% chance of facing the Flyers in the first round who beat them 4 out of 5 times. But given that that’s a slim chance, and Boston has moderate-to-good odds of falling in the first two rounds, Pittsburgh is pretty far down my likeliness-to-choke-o-meter.

Tampa Bay Lightning – 2nd Atlantic Division

Won Season Series: Montreal, New York, Philadelphia, Detroit

Lost Season Series: Boston, Pittsburgh, Columbus

Prediction: Eliminated somewhere between 2nd Round & Stanley Cup Finals

There’s still the possibility that Tampa Bay will drop down to 3rd in the division, but they’ll face Montreal either way. The two teams split shootout victories, but Tampa Bay won both non-shootout games, which is what counts. If The Churko Formula is especially accurate, Tampa Bay should be a dark-horse favourite, provided that Boston and Pittsburgh get knocked out early.

Montreal Canadiens – 3rd Atlantic Division

Won Season Series: Boston

Lost Season Series: Tampa Bay, Philadelphia

Tied Season Series: Pittsburgh, Columbus, Detroit, New York

Prediction: Eliminated 1st Round; otherwise Eastern Finals

They technically have one more series-deciding game against the Rangers, but given the slim chance that they’ll actually face them, I’m not bothering to wait for the result. In the event of a tied season series, the edge goes to home-ice advantage, and Montreal would have home-ice advantage against most teams. Unfortunately, they’d have to defy my formula to get past the Lightning, then defy everyone else to get past Boston, then defy both to get past Pittsburgh.

New York Rangers – 2nd Metro Division

Won Season Series: Columbus, Detroit

Lost Season Series: Boston, Tampa Bay

Tied Season Series: Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Montreal

Prediction: Eliminated in 2nd Round

Statistics show that home-ice advantage is a better prediction of victory in a tied season series than a won season series. Bearing that in mind, New York should be one of the safest first-round bets. They have an 83% chance of facing Philadelphia, and a 17% chance of facing Columbus, neither of whom are favoured by The Churko Formula. They’ll have to beat some major odds to avoid Pittsburgh or Boston in later rounds, but winning the East isn’t impossible for the Rangers.

Philadelphia Flyers – 3rd Metro Division

Won Season Series: Pittsburgh, Montreal, Detroit

Lost Season Series: Boston, Tampa Bay, Columbus

Tied Season Series: New York

Prediction: Eliminated in 1st Round 

They have an 83% chance of facing New York who they likely wouldn’t beat, an 11% of facing Boston who they likely wouldn’t beat, and a 6% chance of facing Pittsburgh who they could beat. But then even if they defeated Pittsburgh, they’d probably lose to either New York or Columbus in the second round, and even if they defiantly won, they’d likely have Boston or Tampa Bay waiting for them in the Eastern Finals. Let’s put it this way: If Philadelphia wins the East, I’ll stop talking about the Churko Formula. Deal?

Columbus Blue Jackets – 1st Wild Card

Won Season Series: Tampa Bay, Philadelphia, Detroit

Lost Season Series: Boston, Pittsburgh, New York

Tied Season Series: Montreal

Prediction: Eliminated in 1st Round

There are actually a fair number of teams that Columbus could beat. And depending on the last two days of the regular season, there are several teams that Columbus might face in the first round. There’s a 63% chance that they play Pittsburgh, a 20% chance that they play Boston, and a 17% chance that they play New York, so…um…okay fine, Columbus is going to lose right away.

Detroit Red Wings – 2nd Wild Card

Won Season Series: Boston

Lost Season Series: Tampa Bay, New York, Philadelphia, Columbus

Tied Season Series: Pittsburgh, Montreal

Prediction: Eliminated in 2nd Round

Well, they've only won a single season series so I guess…wait, they beat THE BRUINS?! And they’re probably going to play the Bruins in the first round?! Alright, I guess Detroit is just here to slay the dragon and then peace out in the second round. Thanks for potentially making the eastern playoffs more exciting, Motor City. We should invite you more often.

Anaheim Ducks – 1st Western Conference

Won Season Series: St. Louis, Los Angeles, Minnesota

Lost Season Series: Chicago, Dallas

Tied Season Series: San Jose, Colorado* (*with one more game)

Prediction: Eliminated in 1st or 3rd round 

Everyone should pay attention to their game Sunday against Colorado, as that puts them into a very interesting situation. If they win, they’ll have a first-round date with Dallas who beat them in the season series. If they lose, they’ll have a chance of playing Minnesota instead, but only if they lose their game tonight against LA. It’s hard to imagine Anaheim dropping both, but it may be in their best interests to do so. Let’s say they do. They would play Minnesota in the first round (and probably win), then either Los Angeles or San Jose in the second round (and probably win), but then probably either Colorado or Chicago who will both have beat them in the regular season. Either way, Anaheim’s not going to the Finals, at least not according to MY formula.

Colorado Avalanche – 2nd Western Conference

Won Season Series: San Jose, Chicago, Dallas, Minnesota

Lost Season Series: St. Louis

Tied Season Series: Anaheim* (*with one more game), Los Angeles

Prediction: Eliminated in 2nd Round or Stanley Cup Finals

The Avalanche are guaranteed to have the Churko Advantage (I just made that up, and I’m keeping it) in the first round. As long as they stay ahead of St. Louis (73% likelihood), they can take out a wildcard team, let the Blackhawks take care of the Blues, and then punch-out the Blackhawks. The most likely winners of the Pacific Division will either be Anaheim or (as I explain later, surprisingly) Dallas. Colorado could beat Dallas, but Anaheim? The season series will be determined on Sunday, though as mentioned above, Anaheim may lose the game strategically (but probably not). In the 27% chance that Colorado falls behind St. Louis, they’ll have no way to avoid the Blues and will bow-out in the second round. But amazingly, The Churko Formula predicts these guys as having the best chances of winning the west.

St. Louis Blues – 2nd Central Division

Won Season Series: Colorado, Minnesota

Lost Season Series: Anaheim, Los Angeles, San Jose, Chicago, Dallas

Prediction: Eliminated in 1st or 3rd round

For such a good team, the Blues have lost a surprisingly large number of season series matchups. Depending on how Sunday goes, there’s a 27% chance that St. Louis will recover from their losing streak and lock the top spot in the Central. If that’s the case, they can take out Minnesota and then probably Colorado, but even then, they’ll be stonewalled in the Western Finals. In the much more likely event that they face Chicago right away, they’ll probably be knocked out in the first round.

Chicago Blackhawks – 3rd Central Division

Won Season Series: Anaheim, St. Louis, San Jose, Los Angeles, Dallas

Lost Season Series: Colorado, Minnesota

Prediction: Eliminated 1st, 2nd, or 4th round (they're a hard team to predict)

They’re the exact opposite of St. Louis. St. Louis can only beat Colorado and Minnesota, and Chicago can only beat everyone else. What does that mean for the defending Stanley Cup Champions? They’ll probably lose to Colorado in one of the first two rounds (they lost 4 of 5 to the Avalanche during the season), but if they use take advantage of all of their extra playoff experience (which is probable), they could be an exception to the rule and win the West.

San Jose Sharks – 2nd Pacific Division

Won Season Series: St. Louis, Minnesota, Dallas

Lost Season Series: Los Angeles, Colorado, Chicago

Tied Season Series: Anaheim

Prediction: Eliminated in 1st round

Not much to this. They’ll lose to Los Angeles. If not, they’ll lose to Anaheim. If not, they’ll lose to Chicago or Colorado. If not, they’ll lose to Boston or Pittsburgh. If not, then I guess I look like the world’s biggest jackass.

Los Angeles Kings – 3rd Pacific Division

Won Season Series: St. Louis, San Jose

Lost Season Series: Anaheim, Chicago, Minnesota, Dallas

Tied Season Series: Colorado

Prediction: Eliminated in 2nd round

Again, pretty cut-and-dry. They should beat San Jose then lose in the second round, or eventually.

Minnesota Wild – 1st Wild Card

Won Season Series: Chicago, Los Angeles

Lost Season Series: Anaheim, Colorado, St. Louis, San Jose

Tied Season Series: Dallas

Prediction: Eliminated in 1st round

Impressively, the Wild have the Churko Advantage (heh) over recent champions Chicago and Los Angeles as well as Dallas. Unfortunately, they have no chance of playing any of them in the first round, so it should be a short post-season return for Minnesota.

Dallas Stars – 2nd Wild Card

Won Season Series: Anaheim, St. Louis, Los Angeles

Lost Season Series: Colorado, Chicago, San Jose

Tied Season Series: Minnesota

Prediction: Eliminated in 1st or 3rd round.

Funny how the first ever western “Wild Card” teams would literally be the Wild and the Stars (who are from the wild west). Just thought I’d point that out. Speaking of wild, the Stars have an 80% chance of facing the Ducks, who they beat in the season series. If they win, they’ll probably play the Kings, who they also beat in the season series. In short, the Stars are my dark horse favourite to go to the Western Finals.

The Stanley Cup Finals

My favorite teams to win the East: Pittsburgh, Boston, Tampa Bay

My favorite teams to win the West: Colorado, Chicago, Anaheim

Boston could beat Chicago or Colorado
Pittsburgh could beat any of them
Tampa Bay could beat Chicago

My Prediction: Pittsburgh over Colorado